Home Win — Prediction Accuracy
A home win tip backs one result out of three. Here is how often ours landed, measured against what guessing would have achieved.
Home Win — the record
Ahead of the baseline — 58.7% against a 33.3% baseline, over n = 2,255 settled tips in the last 365 days. That is 25.4 points above the baseline.
Recent form (last 90 days): 61.5%on n = 558 — in line with or better than the headline figure.
Picking one of three results at random lands about 33% of the time, so that is the bar this has to clear.
Home Win by league
Each league is measured against its own baseline, because leagues differ. Best edge first — the ones behind are further down, not removed.
Showing 36 leagues with 30+ settled matches. 33 leagues fall below that and are left out — too few matches to call it a hit rate.
- Ligi kuu Bara95%+62.2ptn=44
- Liga Portugal83%+49.8ptn=59
- La Liga77%+44.2ptn=71
- Uganda Premier League74%+41.0ptn=35
- Ukrainian Premier League71%+37.3ptn=34
- Champions League70%+36.7ptn=40
- Bundesliga68%+34.7ptn=50
- Women's Super League68%+34.4ptn=31
- South Africa Premier League67%+33.4ptn=30
- Npfl63%+30.1ptn=41
- Eredivisie62%+28.9ptn=37
- Jupiler League62%+28.8ptn=66
- Ligue 162%+28.2ptn=78
- Serie A62%+28.2ptn=65
- 2. Bundesliga61%+28.1ptn=44
- English League Championship61%+27.8ptn=54
- Npl Queensland61%+27.6ptn=46
- English Premier League60%+26.3ptn=52
- Brazil Serie A59%+26.2ptn=37
- Chance Liga59%+25.9ptn=49
- Major League Soccer57%+24.2ptn=40
- Europe League56%+23.0ptn=32
- Ghana Premier League56%+22.6ptn=34
- Enterprise National League52%+19.0ptn=65
- FA Cup52%+18.2ptn=99
- English League 151%+17.8ptn=88
- Eerste Divisie50%+16.7ptn=80
- Liga Profesional de Fútbol50%+16.7ptn=56
- Challenger Pro League50%+16.7ptn=46
- NB I50%+16.7ptn=30
- Indian Super League49%+15.3ptn=37
- 3. Liga47%+13.8ptn=34
- Bulgaria First League45%+12.2ptn=44
- China League One45%+11.3ptn=56
- Ekstraklasa42%+9.1ptn=33
- English League 238%+4.5ptn=37
The amber line on each bar is that league's own baseline. Green means the model is ahead of it, grey means it is not.
How this is measured
- Every home win tip published in the last 365 days is scored against the final result. Losing tips stay on the record.
- Picking one of three results at random lands about 33% of the time, so that is the bar this has to clear.
- Fixtures the model could not price are excluded — they were never published as tips.
- Current verdict: Ahead of the baseline, on 2,255 settled tips.
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18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
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