Home Win — Prediction Accuracy
A home win tip backs one result out of three. Here is how often ours landed, measured against what guessing would have achieved.
Home Win — the record
Ahead of the baseline — 57.1% against a 33.3% baseline, over n = 2,522 settled tips in the last 365 days. That is 23.8 points above the baseline.
Recent form (last 90 days): 57.9%on n = 347 — in line with or better than the headline figure.
Picking one of three results at random lands about 33% of the time, so that is the bar this has to clear.
Home Win by league
Each league is measured against its own baseline, because leagues differ. Best edge first — the ones behind are further down, not removed.
Showing 40 leagues with 30+ settled matches. 29 leagues fall below that and are left out — too few matches to call it a hit rate.
- Ligi kuu Bara98%+64.3ptn=42
- Liga Portugal83%+50.0ptn=66
- Bundesliga74%+41.1ptn=39
- La Liga74%+40.9ptn=89
- WC Qualification Europe72%+38.5ptn=39
- Uganda Premier League71%+38.1ptn=42
- Champions League71%+37.6ptn=55
- Women's Super League71%+37.3ptn=34
- Eredivisie69%+35.9ptn=39
- South Africa Premier League64%+31.1ptn=45
- Npfl64%+30.3ptn=55
- 2. Bundesliga63%+30.0ptn=49
- English Premier League61%+28.0ptn=62
- Liga MX61%+27.7ptn=41
- Npl Queensland61%+27.6ptn=46
- Ukrainian Premier League60%+26.7ptn=35
- Serie B59%+26.1ptn=32
- Jupiler League59%+26.0ptn=59
- Ligue 158%+25.1ptn=77
- Romania Liga 158%+24.8ptn=31
- Chance Liga57%+23.6ptn=51
- Europe League57%+23.3ptn=53
- English League Championship56%+23.1ptn=55
- Brazil Serie A55%+22.1ptn=74
- Ghana Premier League53%+20.2ptn=43
- Challenger Pro League53%+19.6ptn=51
- Jamaica Premier League53%+19.6ptn=34
- Enterprise National League51%+18.1ptn=72
- Serie A51%+17.9ptn=84
- Major League Soccer49%+15.4ptn=39
- Indian Super League48%+15.1ptn=31
- FA Cup48%+14.8ptn=54
- Liga Profesional de Fútbol47%+13.2ptn=86
- Eerste Divisie46%+13.0ptn=82
- English League 146%+12.7ptn=87
- China League One46%+12.3ptn=68
- Bulgaria First League45%+11.9ptn=42
- 3. Liga43%+9.3ptn=47
- Ekstraklasa42%+8.6ptn=31
- English League 236%+2.9ptn=47
The amber line on each bar is that league's own baseline. Green means the model is ahead of it, grey means it is not.
How this is measured
- Every home win tip published in the last 365 days is scored against the final result. Losing tips stay on the record.
- Picking one of three results at random lands about 33% of the time, so that is the bar this has to clear.
- Fixtures the model could not price are excluded — they were never published as tips.
- Current verdict: Ahead of the baseline, on 2,522 settled tips.
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18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
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