Correct Score — Prediction Accuracy
Predicting an exact scoreline is the hardest thing we do, and the hit rate reflects that. What matters is whether it beats simply guessing the most common score every week.
Correct Score — the record
Behind the baseline — 10.2% against a 11.2% baseline, over n = 3,402 settled tips in the last 365 days. That is 1.0 points below the baseline, so this market is not currently beating a coin flip. We publish it anyway — that is the point of this page.
Correct score is the hardest market there is — one exact result out of dozens. The bar is how often the single most common scoreline came up. 1-1 was the most common final score in this sample, landing in 11.2% of matches. Always guessing 1-1 is therefore the bar.
Correct Score by league
Each league is measured against its own baseline, because leagues differ. Best edge first — the ones behind are further down, not removed.
Showing 37 leagues with 30+ settled matches. 3 leagues fall below that and are left out — too few matches to call it a hit rate.
- Liga Profesional de Fútbol16%+5.1ptn=221
- South Africa Premier League15%+4.3ptn=71
- China Super League15%+4.0ptn=92
- China League One15%+3.8ptn=107
- Brazil Serie A15%+3.5ptn=150
- Serie A14%+3.1ptn=98
- Superliga14%+2.9ptn=71
- NB I14%+2.7ptn=65
- English League 113%+2.0ptn=53
- Ukrainian Premier League13%+1.8ptn=77
- Serie B12%+1.1ptn=98
- English Premier League11%+0.3ptn=87
- La Liga11%+0.2ptn=105
- Ekstraklasa11%-0.4ptn=111
- Club Friendlies 111%-0.4ptn=65
- Tippeligaen10%-1.2ptn=100
- Eredivisie10%-1.2ptn=80
- Liga MX10%-1.3ptn=131
- Chance Liga10%-1.6ptn=94
- Major League Soccer10%-1.7ptn=263
- Bulgaria First League9%-1.7ptn=74
- Romania Liga 19%-2.0ptn=109
- English League Championship9%-2.4ptn=102
- Allsvenskan8%-3.4ptn=116
- Champions League7%-3.8ptn=95
- Bundesliga7%-4.1ptn=71
- 2. Bundesliga7%-4.5ptn=45
- Npl Victoria7%-4.7ptn=46
- J1 League6%-4.9ptn=48
- Ligue 16%-5.1ptn=49
- FA Cup5%-6.0ptn=77
- Admiral Bundesliga5%-6.4ptn=42
- Switzerland Super League5%-6.6ptn=66
- New South Wales3%-7.8ptn=59
- K League 13%-8.2ptn=66
- Europe League3%-8.6ptn=118
- Enterprise National League0%-11.2ptn=34
The amber line on each bar is that league's own baseline. Green means the model is ahead of it, grey means it is not.
How this is measured
- Every correct score tip published in the last 365 days is scored against the final result. Losing tips stay on the record.
- Correct score is the hardest market there is — one exact result out of dozens. The bar is how often the single most common scoreline came up. 1-1 was the most common final score in this sample, landing in 11.2% of matches. Always guessing 1-1 is therefore the bar.
- Fixtures the model could not price are excluded — they were never published as tips.
- Current verdict: Behind the baseline, on 3,402 settled tips.
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18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
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