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Away Win — Prediction Accuracy

An away win tip backs one result out of three. Here is how often ours landed, measured against what guessing would have achieved.

Away Win — the record

Hit rate
48.8%
Coin-flip baseline
33.3%
Landed
472
Missed
496

Ahead of the baseline 48.8% against a 33.3% baseline, over n = 968 settled tips in the last 365 days. That is 15.5 points above the baseline.

Recent form (last 90 days): 57.8%on n = 154 in line with or better than the headline figure.

Picking one of three results at random lands about 33% of the time, so that is the bar this has to clear.

0255075100Sep 25: 20 of 37 (54.1%)SepOct 25: 24 of 56 (42.9%)OctNov 25: 29 of 60 (48.3%)NovDec 25: 34 of 60 (56.7%)DecJan 26: 73 of 159 (45.9%)JanFeb 26: 75 of 139 (54.0%)FebMar 26: 60 of 132 (45.5%)MarApr 26: 43 of 103 (41.7%)AprMay 26: 24 of 64 (37.5%)MayJun 26: 2 of 6 (33.3%)JunJul 26: 8 of 19 (42.1%)JulAug 26: 44 of 73 (60.3%)AugSep 26: 36 of 60 (60.0%)Sepcoin-flip baseline 33%
Month by month, last 13 months with at least 5 settled tips. Grey bars are months below the baseline — they stay on the record.

Away Win by league

Each league is measured against its own baseline, because leagues differ. Best edge first — the ones behind are further down, not removed.

Showing 6 leagues with 30+ settled matches. 60 leagues fall below that and are left out — too few matches to call it a hit rate.

  • Liga Portugal73%+40.0pt
  • La Liga46%+13.0pt
  • Enterprise National League42%+8.6pt
  • Champions League40%+6.7pt
  • English League 135%+1.8pt
  • English League 229%-4.3pt

The amber line on each bar is that league's own baseline. Green means the model is ahead of it, grey means it is not.

How this is measured

  • Every away win tip published in the last 365 days is scored against the final result. Losing tips stay on the record.
  • Picking one of three results at random lands about 33% of the time, so that is the bar this has to clear.
  • Fixtures the model could not price are excluded — they were never published as tips.
  • Current verdict: Ahead of the baseline, on 968 settled tips.

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18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.

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