Over 2.5 Goals — Prediction Accuracy
Every over/under 2.5 goals call we published in the last 90 days, scored against the final score. The number that matters is not the hit rate on its own — it is the hit rate next to what a blanket guess would have achieved over the same matches.
Over / Under 2.5 goals — the record
Behind the baseline — 53.2% against a 58.8% baseline, over n = 2,659 settled tips in the last 90 days. That is 5.7 points below the baseline, so this market is not currently beating a coin flip. We publish it anyway — that is the point of this page.
Measured across 38 leagues with at least 30 settled matches each — leagues with only a handful of games are excluded, because 2 from 3 is not a hit rate. In each league the bar is whichever blanket call would have scored higher there (always "over" or always "under"); those are volume-weighted into the 58.8% shown.
Where it works, and where it doesn't
Each league is measured against its own baseline, because leagues differ. Best edge first — the ones behind are further down, not removed.
Showing 38 leagues with 30+ settled matches. 17 leagues fall below that and are left out — too few matches to call it a hit rate.
- Ligue 267%+11.7ptn=51
- La Liga66%+9.1ptn=56
- Chance Liga60%+7.5ptn=43
- Bulgaria First League58%+6.3ptn=60
- English League 258%+6.0ptn=69
- Ligi kuu Bara60%+3.3ptn=58
- Npl Victoria56%+2.3ptn=71
- New South Wales57%+0.3ptn=89
- NB I64%+0.1ptn=39
- Challenger Pro League65%-0.3ptn=34
- Serie B53%-0.4ptn=38
- Tippeligaen67%-1.7ptn=49
- South Africa Premier League62%-2.0ptn=50
- Liga MX51%-2.0ptn=51
- FA Cup57%-2.7ptn=361
- Liga Profesional de Fútbol56%-2.7ptn=135
- Romania Liga 150%-3.0ptn=70
- World Cup 202655%-3.6ptn=74
- Allsvenskan46%-5.0ptn=87
- Admiral Bundesliga56%-5.4ptn=36
- Superliga46%-6.2ptn=48
- Champions League49%-6.7ptn=73
- Major League Soccer52%-6.9ptn=96
- Europe League46%-7.4ptn=68
- Enterprise National League50%-8.0ptn=52
- Jupiler League54%-9.2ptn=52
- Eerste Divisie63%-9.5ptn=64
- Npl Queensland56%-10.0ptn=50
- Brazil Serie A43%-11.9ptn=58
- K League 139%-14.0ptn=59
- Ekstraklasa43%-14.4ptn=68
- Club Friendlies 150%-16.0ptn=92
- China League One43%-16.5ptn=92
- English League 144%-16.7ptn=70
- China Super League41%-17.8ptn=68
- Liga Portugal41%-18.2ptn=49
- English League Championship53%-18.9ptn=32
- Switzerland Super League43%-34.4ptn=47
The amber line on each bar is that league's own baseline. Green means the model is ahead of it, grey means it is not.
How this is measured
- A call is correct when the model predicted over and the match finished with 3 or more goals, or predicted under and it finished with 2 or fewer.
- Only settled matches count. Nothing is removed after the fact because it lost.
- The window is the last 90 days, refreshed daily. Current verdict: Behind the baseline.
Related pages
See every prediction as it happens
Daily tips, full match analysis, and the same published record inside the app
18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
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