Over 2.5 Goals — Prediction Accuracy
Every over/under 2.5 goals call we published in the last 90 days, scored against the final score. The number that matters is not the hit rate on its own — it is the hit rate next to what a blanket guess would have achieved over the same matches.
Over / Under 2.5 goals — the record
Behind the baseline — 54.4% against a 58.9% baseline, over n = 3,617 settled tips in the last 90 days. That is 4.5 points below the baseline, so this market is not currently beating a coin flip. We publish it anyway — that is the point of this page.
Measured across 41 leagues with at least 30 settled matches each — leagues with only a handful of games are excluded, because 2 from 3 is not a hit rate. In each league the bar is whichever blanket call would have scored higher there (always "over" or always "under"); those are volume-weighted into the 58.9% shown.
Where it works, and where it doesn't
Each league is measured against its own baseline, because leagues differ. Best edge first — the ones behind are further down, not removed.
Showing 41 leagues with 30+ settled matches. 15 leagues fall below that and are left out — too few matches to call it a hit rate.
- Ligue 261%+9.6ptn=94
- Bulgaria First League61%+9.2ptn=67
- NB I63%+8.7ptn=59
- Greece Super League53%+1.3ptn=60
- South Africa Premier League65%+1.2ptn=66
- UEFA Nations League51%+1.0ptn=104
- China League One53%+0.5ptn=99
- Npfl61%+0.4ptn=101
- La Liga58%+0.1ptn=105
- Ligi kuu Bara60%+0.0ptn=35
- Serie B50%-1.0ptn=98
- FA Cup60%-2.1ptn=541
- Allsvenskan48%-2.1ptn=94
- Ghana Premier League61%-2.5ptn=76
- Liga Profesional de Fútbol53%-2.5ptn=179
- English League 249%-3.6ptn=160
- Challenger Pro League58%-4.7ptn=60
- 3. Liga59%-5.0ptn=78
- Romania Liga 147%-5.5ptn=86
- Europe League47%-5.6ptn=38
- New South Wales50%-6.0ptn=32
- Jupiler League60%-6.2ptn=87
- Premier League Cup63%-6.5ptn=48
- Cambodia C-League53%-6.7ptn=30
- Brazil Serie A43%-6.7ptn=30
- Enterprise National League58%-6.9ptn=86
- Bundesliga62%-7.0ptn=71
- English League 146%-7.6ptn=153
- Liga Portugal49%-7.6ptn=83
- Major League Soccer52%-8.8ptn=46
- Eerste Divisie59%-9.3ptn=126
- English Premier League41%-10.2ptn=76
- Admiral Bundesliga55%-12.0ptn=60
- Superliga48%-12.3ptn=65
- Champions League56%-12.8ptn=48
- English League Championship49%-12.8ptn=65
- Serie A47%-12.9ptn=68
- Ekstraklasa46%-13.7ptn=95
- Club Friendlies 150%-15.0ptn=34
- Switzerland Super League55%-20.0ptn=60
- Women's Super League39%-22.1ptn=54
The amber line on each bar is that league's own baseline. Green means the model is ahead of it, grey means it is not.
How this is measured
- A call is correct when the model predicted over and the match finished with 3 or more goals, or predicted under and it finished with 2 or fewer.
- Only settled matches count. Nothing is removed after the fact because it lost.
- The window is the last 90 days, refreshed daily. Current verdict: Behind the baseline.
Related pages
See every prediction as it happens
Daily tips, full match analysis, and the same published record inside the app
18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
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