Home or Draw (1X) — Prediction Accuracy
1X wins if the home side wins or draws. Because it covers two results out of three, it has a high bar to clear before it means anything.
Home or Draw (1X) — the record
Ahead of the baseline — 73.6% against a 66.7% baseline, over n = 6,890 settled tips in the last 365 days. That is 6.9 points above the baseline.
Recent form (last 90 days): 73.1%on n = 1,808 — below the headline figure.
This tip covers two of the three possible results, so picking at random already lands about 67% of the time. That — not 33% — is the bar it has to clear.
Home or Draw (1X) by league
Each league is measured against its own baseline, because leagues differ. Best edge first — the ones behind are further down, not removed.
Showing 58 leagues with 30+ settled matches. 10 leagues fall below that and are left out — too few matches to call it a hit rate.
- Npfl89%+22.7ptn=142
- Ghana Premier League83%+16.5ptn=107
- Greece Super League82%+15.6ptn=79
- Uganda Premier League82%+14.9ptn=103
- Serie B80%+13.5ptn=162
- South Africa Premier League80%+12.9ptn=98
- Liga Portugal80%+12.8ptn=88
- Brazil Serie A79%+12.3ptn=200
- Tippeligaen78%+11.8ptn=93
- Jamaica Premier League78%+11.6ptn=69
- Romania Liga 178%+11.0ptn=121
- China Super League78%+10.9ptn=152
- Bundesliga78%+10.9ptn=116
- World Cup 202678%+10.9ptn=49
- La Liga77%+10.6ptn=132
- Ekstraklasa76%+9.2ptn=158
- Hong Kong Premier League76%+8.9ptn=41
- Major League Soccer76%+8.8ptn=245
- Europe League75%+8.3ptn=124
- China League One74%+7.5ptn=97
- Champions League74%+7.5ptn=120
- English Premier League74%+7.4ptn=139
- English League 274%+7.4ptn=185
- Eredivisie74%+7.3ptn=123
- Serie A74%+6.9ptn=121
- Admiral Bundesliga73%+6.8ptn=83
- English League Championship73%+6.6ptn=217
- NB I73%+6.3ptn=63
- Bulgaria First League73%+6.0ptn=128
- UAE Pro League73%+5.8ptn=51
- Superliga72%+5.6ptn=94
- Allsvenskan72%+5.5ptn=72
- Ukrainian Premier League72%+5.5ptn=54
- Liga Profesional de Fútbol72%+5.4ptn=301
- Ligue 172%+5.4ptn=86
- Ligue 272%+5.1ptn=149
- 2. Bundesliga72%+5.0ptn=127
- 3. Liga71%+4.6ptn=122
- Ligi kuu Bara71%+4.6ptn=115
- A-League Men71%+3.9ptn=68
- Switzerland Super League70%+3.0ptn=99
- Premier League Cup70%+3.0ptn=33
- Liga MX70%+2.8ptn=128
- English League 169%+2.7ptn=193
- Jupiler League68%+1.8ptn=111
- Chance Liga68%+1.7ptn=98
- Npl Queensland68%+1.6ptn=41
- K League 168%+1.5ptn=132
- Challenger Pro League68%+1.4ptn=72
- Club Friendlies 168%+1.2ptn=53
- Enterprise National League68%+0.9ptn=222
- Kenya Premier League67%+0.8ptn=123
- FA Cup67%+0.7ptn=181
- Eerste Divisie66%-0.3ptn=122
- India I-League66%-0.9ptn=38
- New South Wales65%-1.9ptn=122
- Cambodia C-League64%-2.8ptn=36
- Npl Victoria60%-6.7ptn=105
The amber line on each bar is that league's own baseline. Green means the model is ahead of it, grey means it is not.
How this is measured
- Every home or draw tip published in the last 365 days is scored against the final result. Losing tips stay on the record.
- This tip covers two of the three possible results, so picking at random already lands about 67% of the time. That — not 33% — is the bar it has to clear.
- Fixtures the model could not price are excluded — they were never published as tips.
- Current verdict: Ahead of the baseline, on 6,890 settled tips.
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18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
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