Home or Draw (1X) — Prediction Accuracy
1X wins if the home side wins or draws. Because it covers two results out of three, it has a high bar to clear before it means anything.
Home or Draw (1X) — the record
Ahead of the baseline — 73.8% against a 66.7% baseline, over n = 7,339 settled tips in the last 365 days. That is 7.1 points above the baseline.
Recent form (last 90 days): 73.8%on n = 2,634 — below the headline figure.
This tip covers two of the three possible results, so picking at random already lands about 67% of the time. That — not 33% — is the bar it has to clear.
Home or Draw (1X) by league
Each league is measured against its own baseline, because leagues differ. Best edge first — the ones behind are further down, not removed.
Showing 60 leagues with 30+ settled matches. 8 leagues fall below that and are left out — too few matches to call it a hit rate.
- Npfl90%+23.2ptn=188
- Women's Super League86%+19.0ptn=42
- Uganda Premier League84%+17.1ptn=117
- Ghana Premier League83%+16.1ptn=145
- Greece Super League82%+15.1ptn=77
- Brazil Serie A81%+13.9ptn=206
- Serie B80%+13.6ptn=157
- Jamaica Premier League80%+13.0ptn=79
- Hong Kong Premier League80%+12.8ptn=44
- Liga Portugal78%+11.7ptn=88
- Admiral Bundesliga78%+11.5ptn=78
- La Liga78%+11.5ptn=133
- World Cup 202678%+10.9ptn=49
- Bundesliga77%+10.5ptn=101
- South Africa Premier League77%+10.4ptn=118
- Romania Liga 176%+9.8ptn=136
- Champions League75%+8.7ptn=134
- Major League Soccer75%+8.6ptn=287
- Serie A75%+7.9ptn=130
- Tippeligaen74%+7.7ptn=82
- English Premier League74%+7.6ptn=152
- Ligue 274%+7.6ptn=136
- China League One74%+7.6ptn=101
- Eredivisie74%+7.5ptn=132
- Ligi kuu Bara74%+7.3ptn=131
- Europe League74%+7.2ptn=138
- Superliga74%+7.0ptn=95
- Bulgaria First League74%+6.9ptn=129
- English League 274%+6.9ptn=235
- Ekstraklasa74%+6.9ptn=174
- China Super League74%+6.8ptn=155
- Ligue 173%+6.6ptn=75
- UAE Pro League73%+6.4ptn=52
- 2. Bundesliga73%+6.3ptn=137
- Ukrainian Premier League73%+6.0ptn=55
- English League Championship73%+6.0ptn=205
- Liga MX73%+5.9ptn=117
- Liga Profesional de Fútbol72%+5.7ptn=333
- FA Cup72%+5.1ptn=195
- English League 171%+4.8ptn=235
- 3. Liga71%+4.2ptn=127
- Kenya Premier League71%+4.0ptn=123
- NB I70%+3.4ptn=77
- Switzerland Super League70%+3.2ptn=103
- A-League Men70%+3.0ptn=66
- Allsvenskan69%+2.6ptn=75
- K League 169%+1.9ptn=140
- Premier League Cup69%+1.9ptn=35
- Npl Queensland68%+1.6ptn=41
- Chance Liga68%+1.0ptn=99
- Eerste Divisie67%+0.7ptn=129
- Jupiler League67%+0.6ptn=98
- Challenger Pro League67%+0.5ptn=61
- Enterprise National League67%-0.0ptn=234
- UEFA Nations League67%-0.0ptn=66
- Club Friendlies 166%-1.2ptn=58
- New South Wales65%-1.9ptn=122
- India I-League64%-2.6ptn=39
- Npl Victoria60%-6.7ptn=105
- Cambodia C-League59%-7.2ptn=37
The amber line on each bar is that league's own baseline. Green means the model is ahead of it, grey means it is not.
How this is measured
- Every home or draw tip published in the last 365 days is scored against the final result. Losing tips stay on the record.
- This tip covers two of the three possible results, so picking at random already lands about 67% of the time. That — not 33% — is the bar it has to clear.
- Fixtures the model could not price are excluded — they were never published as tips.
- Current verdict: Ahead of the baseline, on 7,339 settled tips.
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18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
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