Draw — Prediction Accuracy
Draws are the hardest single result to call. Here is how often our draw tips landed, measured against what guessing would have achieved.
Draw — the record
Behind the baseline — 23.8% against a 33.3% baseline, over n = 122 settled tips in the last 365 days. That is 9.5 points below the baseline, so this market is not currently beating a coin flip. We publish it anyway — that is the point of this page.
Recent form (last 90 days): 24.6%on n = 114 — in line with or better than the headline figure.
Picking one of three results at random lands about 33% of the time, so that is the bar this has to clear.
Draw by league
Each league is measured against its own baseline, because leagues differ. Best edge first — the ones behind are further down, not removed.
Showing 0 leagues with 30+ settled matches. 25 leagues fall below that and are left out — too few matches to call it a hit rate.
No leagues meet that threshold. Try lowering the minimum.
The amber line on each bar is that league's own baseline. Green means the model is ahead of it, grey means it is not.
How this is measured
- Every draw tip published in the last 365 days is scored against the final result. Losing tips stay on the record.
- Picking one of three results at random lands about 33% of the time, so that is the bar this has to clear.
- Fixtures the model could not price are excluded — they were never published as tips.
- Current verdict: Behind the baseline, on 122 settled tips.
Other markets
Get draw tips daily
Full daily list, match analysis, and the same published record inside the app
18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
© 2016-2026 Football AI - All rights reserved.