Draw or Away (X2) — Prediction Accuracy
X2 wins if the away side wins or draws. Because it covers two results out of three, it has a high bar to clear before it means anything.
Draw or Away (X2) — the record
Behind the baseline — 64.6% against a 66.7% baseline, over n = 4,820 settled tips in the last 365 days. That is 2.1 points below the baseline, so this market is not currently beating a coin flip. We publish it anyway — that is the point of this page.
Recent form (last 90 days): 64.9%on n = 1,655 — in line with or better than the headline figure.
This tip covers two of the three possible results, so picking at random already lands about 67% of the time. That — not 33% — is the bar it has to clear.
Draw or Away (X2) by league
Each league is measured against its own baseline, because leagues differ. Best edge first — the ones behind are further down, not removed.
Showing 56 leagues with 30+ settled matches. 11 leagues fall below that and are left out — too few matches to call it a hit rate.
- Uganda Premier League82%+15.4ptn=67
- South Africa Premier League81%+14.3ptn=42
- Ukrainian Premier League78%+10.9ptn=58
- English Premier League77%+10.0ptn=133
- Ligue 276%+9.6ptn=97
- Serie A75%+8.3ptn=124
- UAE Pro League74%+7.2ptn=69
- Ligi kuu Bara73%+6.5ptn=56
- Club Friendlies 172%+5.2ptn=32
- Superliga70%+3.4ptn=67
- Greece Super League70%+3.3ptn=80
- Women's Super League70%+3.3ptn=40
- Premier League Cup70%+3.1ptn=43
- Eredivisie69%+2.8ptn=59
- Npl Queensland69%+2.5ptn=39
- Bundesliga69%+2.0ptn=96
- FA Cup68%+1.6ptn=265
- Cambodia C-League68%+1.6ptn=41
- K League 168%+0.9ptn=68
- Ekstraklasa67%-0.0ptn=69
- Liga Profesional de Fútbol66%-0.4ptn=101
- Major League Soccer66%-0.7ptn=103
- Allsvenskan66%-0.9ptn=76
- Ligue 165%-1.4ptn=75
- Jupiler League65%-2.1ptn=82
- Npl Victoria64%-2.3ptn=45
- La Liga64%-2.5ptn=120
- China Super League64%-2.5ptn=53
- China League One64%-2.6ptn=64
- Chance Liga64%-2.7ptn=75
- Challenger Pro League63%-3.5ptn=87
- 2. Bundesliga63%-3.7ptn=81
- New South Wales63%-3.9ptn=94
- Jamaica Premier League63%-4.0ptn=118
- Switzerland Super League62%-4.4ptn=77
- Champions League62%-4.4ptn=69
- Enterprise National League62%-4.5ptn=90
- Serie B62%-4.5ptn=156
- Kenya Premier League62%-4.7ptn=71
- Liga Portugal62%-4.9ptn=68
- World Cup 202662%-4.9ptn=34
- Eerste Divisie61%-5.6ptn=113
- English League 161%-5.9ptn=97
- Brazil Serie A61%-6.1ptn=104
- A-League Men60%-6.7ptn=40
- Tippeligaen60%-7.1ptn=57
- English League Championship59%-7.4ptn=182
- English League 259%-7.4ptn=189
- Hong Kong Premier League59%-7.7ptn=39
- Romania Liga 159%-7.9ptn=85
- Liga MX57%-9.6ptn=105
- Europe League57%-10.0ptn=67
- Admiral Bundesliga49%-17.5ptn=59
- 3. Liga47%-19.2ptn=99
- Ghana Premier League43%-23.5ptn=44
- Npfl33%-33.4ptn=75
The amber line on each bar is that league's own baseline. Green means the model is ahead of it, grey means it is not.
How this is measured
- Every draw or away tip published in the last 365 days is scored against the final result. Losing tips stay on the record.
- This tip covers two of the three possible results, so picking at random already lands about 67% of the time. That — not 33% — is the bar it has to clear.
- Fixtures the model could not price are excluded — they were never published as tips.
- Current verdict: Behind the baseline, on 4,820 settled tips.
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18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
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