Draw or Away (X2) — Prediction Accuracy
X2 wins if the away side wins or draws. Because it covers two results out of three, it has a high bar to clear before it means anything.
Draw or Away (X2) — the record
Behind the baseline — 64.4% against a 66.7% baseline, over n = 4,556 settled tips in the last 365 days. That is 2.3 points below the baseline, so this market is not currently beating a coin flip. We publish it anyway — that is the point of this page.
Recent form (last 90 days): 64.7%on n = 1,081 — in line with or better than the headline figure.
This tip covers two of the three possible results, so picking at random already lands about 67% of the time. That — not 33% — is the bar it has to clear.
Draw or Away (X2) by league
Each league is measured against its own baseline, because leagues differ. Best edge first — the ones behind are further down, not removed.
Showing 55 leagues with 30+ settled matches. 12 leagues fall below that and are left out — too few matches to call it a hit rate.
- Uganda Premier League80%+13.7ptn=51
- English Premier League76%+8.9ptn=135
- Serie A75%+8.1ptn=127
- UAE Pro League75%+7.9ptn=63
- South Africa Premier League74%+7.7ptn=43
- Ukrainian Premier League74%+7.0ptn=57
- Ligi kuu Bara73%+6.4ptn=52
- Bundesliga73%+5.9ptn=95
- Ligue 273%+5.8ptn=102
- Superliga72%+5.2ptn=57
- Club Friendlies 172%+5.2ptn=32
- Greece Super League72%+5.1ptn=78
- Ligue 172%+4.9ptn=67
- Jupiler League70%+3.7ptn=81
- K League 170%+2.9ptn=69
- Npl Queensland69%+2.5ptn=39
- Cambodia C-League68%+1.6ptn=41
- Ekstraklasa68%+0.9ptn=68
- Women's Super League68%+0.9ptn=37
- FA Cup68%+0.8ptn=240
- Major League Soccer67%+0.3ptn=91
- Kenya Premier League67%-0.0ptn=75
- China League One67%-0.0ptn=48
- 2. Bundesliga66%-0.5ptn=80
- Eredivisie66%-0.6ptn=62
- China Super League66%-0.7ptn=53
- Challenger Pro League66%-0.7ptn=100
- Premier League Cup65%-1.8ptn=37
- Liga Profesional de Fútbol64%-2.7ptn=100
- Switzerland Super League64%-2.8ptn=72
- Npl Victoria64%-3.1ptn=44
- A-League Men64%-3.1ptn=33
- La Liga63%-3.3ptn=112
- Chance Liga63%-3.3ptn=71
- New South Wales63%-3.9ptn=94
- Serie B63%-4.0ptn=153
- Enterprise National League62%-4.5ptn=74
- World Cup 202662%-4.9ptn=34
- Jamaica Premier League62%-5.0ptn=94
- English League 161%-5.6ptn=90
- Liga Portugal60%-6.4ptn=58
- Allsvenskan60%-6.4ptn=73
- Eerste Divisie60%-6.7ptn=110
- English League Championship60%-7.1ptn=193
- Champions League59%-7.3ptn=69
- Romania Liga 158%-8.9ptn=83
- Brazil Serie A57%-9.2ptn=87
- Europe League57%-9.3ptn=68
- Liga MX57%-9.6ptn=84
- English League 257%-9.7ptn=186
- Tippeligaen54%-13.0ptn=54
- Hong Kong Premier League53%-13.6ptn=32
- Admiral Bundesliga49%-17.7ptn=51
- 3. Liga45%-21.4ptn=95
- Npfl34%-32.4ptn=67
The amber line on each bar is that league's own baseline. Green means the model is ahead of it, grey means it is not.
How this is measured
- Every draw or away tip published in the last 365 days is scored against the final result. Losing tips stay on the record.
- This tip covers two of the three possible results, so picking at random already lands about 67% of the time. That — not 33% — is the bar it has to clear.
- Fixtures the model could not price are excluded — they were never published as tips.
- Current verdict: Behind the baseline, on 4,556 settled tips.
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18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
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